For at least the duration of the current administration, the official
US stance towards its currency has been a "strong dollar" policy. In
hindsight, it appears that this policy was entirely baseless, since its
was directly undermined by the simultaneous easy monetary policy, and
thus it stands to reason that US policymakers did not actually believe
that a strong Dollar policy was necessary to pursue. In a recent op-ed
piece published in the Wall Street Journal, one analyst outlines the
case for a strong dollar, and by extension, why the depreciating Dollar
is bad for the US economy.
First, since oil contracts are settled in Dollars, a weak Dollar has
directly contributed to high oil prices, which has several negative
economic and geopolitical consequences. Second, a cheap Dollar is
eroding the purchasing power of US consumers directly by making imports
more expensive and indirectly through inflation. Third, the weak Dollar
shifts the balance of economic power in favor of US competitors, which
don’t need to grow as fast to keep pace with the US, in Dollar terms.
Finally, the recent weakness threatens the long term reserve status of
the Dollar, which has important implications for economic growth and
jobs creation.
On the other hand, argues the analyst, the conventional wisdom that a
declining Dollar is necessary to correct the current account and trade
deficit is bunk, since much of the trade deficit is accounted for by
intra-company trade and since the current account deficit is generally
overstated and not connected to currency valuations. In short, he
argues, it is in the best interest of the US to align its rhetoric with
its economic and monetary policies such that the long term luster of the
Dollar is restored.
Read More: The Dollar and the Market Mess
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