The Record Rise of the Chinese Yuan

Earlier this week, the Chinese Yuan recorded its highest one-day increase in value in the two years since it was famously revalued against the Dollar.  The currency rose nearly .4% and prompted renewed speculation that China’s Central Bank will either widen the trading band to .8% or will generally allow the currency to appreciate faster.  In fact, the political and economic consensus continues to maintain that the Yuan is not appreciating rapidly enough.  While it rose over 6% against the Dollar, for example, it actually lost value to several of the world’s major currencies.  Furthermore, its decline against the Dollar is less impressive when China’s skyrocketing inflation rate and burgeoning trade surplus are taken into account.

There are still a few analysts who are bucking the trend and arguing that the Yuan is fairly valued.  This notion is supported by a recent World Bank analysis, which updated its calculation of China’s purchasing power and reduced its PPP-equivalent GDP in the process. However, this opinion is echoed by only a small group of analysts, and an overwhelming majority continues to call for and anticipate a further appreciation of the Yuan.  Bloomberg News reports:

Forward contracts show traders are betting on an 8.7 percent advance in the yuan to 6.7344 per dollar in the next 12 months. The median estimate of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News is for a rate of 6.88 by the end of 2008.

Read More: Yuan Rises Most Since End of Peg as China Seeks to Curb Prices