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USD ambivalent towards economic data

Saturday, July 29, 2006

A slew of economic data was released yesterday, each with the potential to exert pressure on the USD. Traders and economists were eyeing the data closely, in order to gauge the likelihood of a Fed rate hike next month. The first two pieces of data to be released were new home sales and durable goods orders, both of which came in below analysts’ expectations. Quarterly GDP data
was next to be released, indicating the US economy has slowed considerably since last quarter, when GDP grew at an astounding 5.3%. The new consensus is that inflation appears to be easing, and hence, the likelihood of another quick rate hike is waning. It seems traders have been bracing for the end of monetary tightening for quite some time, because the net effect of the economic data on the USD was neutral. The Star Tribune reports:
The uncertainty has caused volatility in the markets, although the dollar has remained in very tight ranges with traders reluctant to push currencies in any one direction without further guidance from the Fed.

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