China to limit currency hedging

In a move designed to quash speculation that China will continue to revalue its currency, Chinese financial regulators have enacted new rules to limit indirect hedging of the Yuan. Apparently, many businesses with operations in China had been delaying payments to their American suppliers, with the expectation that another revaluation of the Yuan would indirectly lower their payment obligations. As a result of the new rules, these accounts payable will now be treated as foreign exchange accounts and will be subject to certain rules and fees. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Friday’s move also suggests Beijing sees signs that companies continue to position themselves for a further movement beyond July’s 2.1% revaluation of the Yuan, as the US and other governments pressure Chinese authorities to do more.

Read More: Chinese Rule Aims to Check Currency Hedging

Still no signs of Yuan revaluation

Last week, the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations met in Beijing to discuss pertinent economic issues. As you can probably guess, the Yuan revaluation was at the forefront of the agenda. When criticized over the nominal 2% revaluation that China effected in July, the chairman of China’s Central Bank offered a Chinese proverb: “crossing the river by touching the stones,” meaning China would prefer to take small steps towards revaluation rather than one or two giant leaps. China also insists it must improve its banking system and financial institutions before it will consider floating the Yuan. While the testimony was predictable, analysts nonetheless reacted with dismay. Dow Jones News reports:

“The long term position is for the Chinese market to liberalize, to become more liquid and to be accessible to international investors…but I would be at the long end of 3-5 year period at least.”

Read More: Currency Flexibility Still Distant for China

America businesses have competing views on Yuan revaluation

While nearly 3 months have passed since China famously revalued its currency, the subject remains a hot political issue in America. Several politicians, led by Charles Schumer, are again fighting to pass a bill that would levy a 27% tariff on all Chinese imports, if China fails to fully revalue within one year of the bill’s passage. This bill is supported broadly by small businesses and middle market American companies that feel they are being squeezed by low-cost Chinese labor. On the other end of this debate stand multinational companies, many of whom have opened production facilities in China to take advantage of this low-cost labor. These multinationals, which are understandably against Yuan revaluation, have much more political clout, which may explain why President Bush has stubbornly refused to take action against China.

Canadian Economy Picks Up Quickly

The Canadian economy has grown quicker than expected in the latter part of this year. This has raised fears of inflation arising in the economy. As a result experts now predict that the Bank of Canada will again be forced to raise interest rates, making this the third such increase inside of a year. According to a recent Forex Reader article the central bank will not likely curb increases until it hits the projected 4% target. Experts see the economy finally starting to show signs of responding to the slow down pressure via the increased rate as evidenced in the drastic turn in small-cap stocks which are profiled in PennyStocksBook.com

British economy is lackluster

In a recent report, Britain’s Central Bank warned that the nation’s economy would likely grow at a pace of 1.75% in 2005, which would represent the worst year of growth in over a decade. This latest forecast is significantly from earlier forecasts of 3-3.5%, that the Central Bank had released earlier this year. According to experts, rising energy prices are responsible. Others pin the blame squarely on the slowing real estate market, which has spurred a sharp decline in the consumption component of GDP. Ironically, other G7 countries, including Germany and Japan, are finally showing signs of growth. Britain’s economy, however, seems headed in the opposite direction. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Calling 2005 “the toughest and most challenging” of his eight years as treasury chief, Gordon Brown blamed “a virtual doubling of global oil and commodity prices.”

Read More: British Growth, at 1.75%, Is Slowest Since 1992

Canadian Dollar continues to outperform

The Canadian Dollar has reached a 13 ½ year high against the USD. The reason, you may have guessed, has a lot to do with oil. A recent report on Canada’s oil resources estimates Canada’s famous oil sands may be worth more than $1 trillion. And that is a conservative estimate. Since the price of oil seems likely to remain above $50 in the long run, Canadian oil producers have reevaluated the viability of certain oil fields, now concluding that oil can be profitably extracted and sold. At this point, it seems nothing short of a complete collapse in the price of oil could halt the momentous run of the Canadian Dollar. The Ottawa Sun reports:

“The study … showed the oil sands are going to significantly contribute to the GDP growth over the next 15 years. That refocused a lot of international accounts on the whole ‘Canada as a big oil producer story.’ “

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